The Time for Durable Carbon Removal is Now An Updated Market Outlook for 2025
Broad scientific consensus confirms that durable Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) is essential for global decarbonization, serving to slow "net" emissions in the short term and remove historical emissions in the long term (IPCC, 2023). The imperative for "high quality" removals—defined by permanence, robust monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV), and additionality—is paramount, as any reversal of stored carbon negates the climate benefits.
Two years on from our initial analysis, the durable CDR market has moved from a nascent concept to a rapidly accelerating growth sector. However, a critical investment and supply gap remains. This updated report assesses the market opportunity for durable CDR methods in the 2030-2040 timeframe, leveraging new market data, recent policy developments, and updated buyer surveys.
Here is a summary of what we have learned:
Durable CDR Demand Offers a Significant and Growing Market Opportunity. Our updated analysis estimates a global annual demand of 80 million to 250 million tonnes for durable CDR in 2030. This demand is very likely to far outstrip the announced supply, which has grown but still only totals approximately 45 (CDR.fyi, 2025). The 2030 demand will remain primarily voluntary (~85%), driven by pioneering corporations in sectors like technology and finance. However, the introduction of landmark regulations like the EU's Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF) is creating a clear pathway for a regulated compliance market, which will become a major driver of demand approaching 2040 (European Commission, 2024).
Quality and Durability Have Become Non-Negotiable Corporate buyers are now unequivocally prioritising quality, willing to pay a significant premium for durable removals. Permanence and rigorous MRV remain the top two criteria influencing purchase decisions (AlliedOffsets, 2025). Buyers are increasingly adopting a sophisticated portfolio approach, blending different CDR methods like Direct Air Capture (DACCS), Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), Biochar, and Enhanced Weathering to balance cost, manage risk, and ensure the integrity of their climate claims.
All Stakeholders Must Act to realise this Opportunity. The market's trajectory is set, but its ultimate scale depends on immediate action. Investors must capitalise on the clear demand-supply imbalance, recognising that market leaders are being established now. Standard-setters must continue to build on the foundation of the EU CRCF to provide clear, fungible guidelines. Buyers must move decisively to secure offtake from a limited 2030 supply to avoid future price volatility and meet their commitments. Governments must expand on initial policy successes (like the US Inflation Reduction Act and the EU CRCF) to provide long-term certainty for this critical new industry.
Role of CDR in Global Decarbonization
CDR methods capture and sequester CO2 from the atmosphere, storing it durably in geological, terrestrial, and ocean reservoirs, or in products (IPCC, 2023). The scientific consensus is clear: drastic emissions reductions alone are insufficient to meet the 1.5°C target. Current estimates for the needed amount of CDR range from 5-16 gigatonnes per year by mid-century (Smith et al., 2023).
In this report, we use the term "durable CDR" to refer to methods with medium-to-high durability:
Medium-to-High Durability (100-1,000+ years): Includes methods like Biochar, which has gained significant traction and validation for its scalability and co-benefits.
High Durability (>1,000 years): Includes technology-based solutions like DACCS, BECCS, and Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement.
Demand Outlook for Durable CDR
The market has grown significantly, with total private investment in CDR reaching $2.8 billion in 2024, and major corporate purchases from buyer coalitions like Frontier continuing to send strong demand signals (CDR.fyi, 2025).
Our updated forecast estimates demand for durable CDR at 80-250 in 2030, growing to 200-950 in 2040. This reflects new corporate pledges and the formalisation of compliance markets.
Low Scenario (2030): 80 MtCO_2 demand, with an average price of ~$280/t. Market size of ~$22B.
Medium Scenario (2030): 150 MtCO_2 demand, with an average price of ~$220/t. Market size of ~$33B.
High Scenario (2030): 250 MtCO_2 demand, with an average price of ~$180/t. Market size of ~$45B.
Compliance Demand: The EU CRCF Changes the Game
While voluntary demand still leads, the most significant development since 2023 is the maturation of compliance frameworks. The EU's Carbon Removal Certification Framework (CRCF), formally adopted in 2024, is establishing the world's first regulated, continent-wide market for high-quality carbon removals (European Commission, 2024).
The CRCF provides standardised methodologies for monitoring and verifying removals from methods including biochar, BECCS, and DACCS. This regulatory certainty is a powerful catalyst, providing a clear long-term demand signal and enabling projects to secure financing. It is expected that other jurisdictions, such as the UK and California, will follow the EU's lead, further expanding the compliance-driven demand for durable CDR.
The Demand and Supply Imbalance
The core investment thesis remains stronger than ever: the market is severely supply-constrained. Announced global supply of durable CDR is projected to reach only ~45 by 2030 (CDR.fyi, 2025). This creates a stark gap when compared to even the most conservative demand estimate of 80 MtCO_2.
This imbalance will continue to be influenced by buyers at the top of the demand curve who are willing to pay a premium for quality. Public purchase prices for durable CDR have consolidated, averaging around CO_{2}$ in early 2025 (CDR.fyi, 2025). In a supply-constrained market, early investors in scalable and cost-effective suppliers stand to benefit significantly.
An Opportunity Not to Miss: What Must Be Done
Considering it took solar energy decades to reach competitive costs, immediate action is required to accelerate CDR development and capture this market opportunity (Nemet, 2019).
Investors must act now to capitalise on a market where demand far exceeds supply. The investment risk is decreasing as regulatory frameworks and corporate demand solidify, creating clear potential for high returns.
CDR Credit Buyers must act now to secure offtake agreements for 2030 and beyond. Those who delay will likely face higher prices and limited availability, potentially risking their ability to meet climate commitments.
Governments must accelerate support through both supply-side policies (e.g., subsidies, innovation funds) and demand-side mechanisms, building on the precedent set by the EU's CRCF.
Bibliography
AlliedOffsets (2025) State of the CDR Market 2025. Available at:
BCG (2023) The Time for Carbon Removal Has Come. (Inspirational Source for this updated analysis). Available at: [Link to the original file location would be placed here if publicly available].
CDR.fyi (2025) Live Carbon Removal Market Data. Available at:
European Commission (2024) Carbon Removal Certification Framework. Available at:
IPCC (2023) Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Available at:
Nemet, G.F. (2019) How Solar Energy Became Cheap: A Model for Low-Carbon Innovation. New York: Routledge.
Smith, S. M., Geden, O., Nemet, G., Gidden, M., Lamb, W. F., Powis, C., Bellamy, R., Callaghan, M., Cowie, A., Cox, E., Fuss, S., Gasser, T., Grassi, G., Greene, J., Lück, S., Mohan, A., Müller-Hansen, F., Peters, G. P., Pratama, Y., Repke, T., Riahi, K., Rogelj, J., Trçak, J., & Minx, J. C. (2023) The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal - 1st Edition. The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal. Available at:
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